Flooding in an Uncertain Future: Can Policy Keep Up with Science? (#202)
Alex Barton
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- Water Technology, Notting Hill, SOUTH AUSTRALIA, Australia
- Planning flood-resilient infrastructure in Australia is becoming increasingly challenging due to rapid adjustments in climate science predictions. Constant amendments to climate science over recent years leave floodplain managers continuously navigating outdated standards and potentially inadequate protection for projects designed for 2100. This paper looks at how the lag between urban planning policy and climate science impacts infrastructure planning.
- I undertook a review of Victorian policy for planning and infrastructure design in association with the continual changes in climate policy over the past 10 years and how the disjoint in the policy and standards has a significant monetary impact on the design and construction process of infrastructure.
- Guidance on flood modelling for climate change has undergone relatively frequent change over the past several years. Changes to increased rainfall intensities for the year 2100 have varied in Melbourne from 16% in 2016 to 18.5% in 2020 and now further proposed changes to Australian Rainfall and Runoff guidelines are proposed. It is evident that government policy cannot keep up with the changes of climatic science. An adaptive resilience approach is required, which is inconsistent with policy of floodplain managers.
- Frequent changes in flood modelling guidance have a significant impact on how we plan for future climate resilient infrastructure in both a preservation of life and financial aspect. The issues experienced across Victoria will not be the first and will result in inadequate protection if not managed in an adaptive manner.
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